DoomBrothers

DOOMED TO THE MEAN

2009-03-01T19:49:00.000-08:00

In rebus mediis est sapientia

Leonard Mlodinow is a physicist at the California Institute of Technology. His recent book is The Drunkard’s Walk. This is a book about statistical inference. We at Doombrothers have previously warned about statisticians (see Doombrothers November 22, 2008). However, we feel called upon to re-alert you about the dangers of this baleful pseudo-science.

Dr. Mlodinow, who clearly needs to buy a vowel, discusses the horrible statistical phenomenon of “regression to the mean.” What he speaks of with apparent unconcern and insouciance is the phenomenon that performance or gifts or acquisitions out of proportion to the ordinary are typically followed by gifts, or acquisitions or performances that are more in line with the ordinary. So, for example, landing on the front page of Sports Illustrated is associated with an extraordinary performance one week and will more typically be followed by a less than extraordinary performance the following weeks – thus the “jinx” of the magazine. Or, the extraordinary achievements of one man, say a Henry Ford, are followed by children with less than extraordinary gifts.

What Dr. Mlodinow DID NOT say to you is that this implies that we, at the very apex of achievement are gradually slipping downward in an inexorable slide toward mediocrity, the arithmetic mean. Statistically speaking, the more amazing are our lives or our feats the more rapidly we will fail and the further we will fall. As an illustrative aside, regression to the mean implies that one Doombrother is fated to be gap-toothed, barely literate and semi-articulate, wandering the hills and hollows of Appalachia and marrying my first cousin while the other is fated to a similar outcome in the swampy regions of the Middle Atlantic States.

We at Doombrothers have carefully studied this conundrum and we believe we have crafted an elegant, foolproof and realistic alternative to the fatal slippage and inherent disappointment of this doomful statistical nonsense. We have decided to EMBRACE THE MEAN. If we comport ourselves in an average fashion then we will not fall far away from the mean and thus will not be a disappointment to ourselves or to others!

Mysterious Green Comet Nearing Earth: Refuses to communicate with NASA, Intent unknown!

2009-02-21T21:43:00.000-08:00

Esse veridis non est facile

In the bland underspeak of NASA, Donald Yeomans, manager of NASA’s NEAR EARTH OBJECT program and NASA astronomer Stephen Edberg announced the latest THREAT TO LIFE AS WE KNOW IT.

The comet Lulin, recently discovered by a CHI-COM teenager (the same teens perhaps who participated in the Olympics), is plunging will-he nil-he towards the earth. The comet came from the edges of our solar system, eighteen billion miles from us, and no one professes to know what it wants. Attempts to establish communication with the comet have been abysmal failures.

The comet still retains the gases usually stripped by approach to the sun. This virginal comet is greenish in appearance due to the type of carbon contained in its vapors and CYANOGEN, A DEADLY POISONOUS GAS.

NASA admits that the comet could come even closer than the 38 million miles from earth projected. The comet is coming on Monday, February 23 and will close with Earth at 10:43 p.m. EST. Edberg stated “…it’s not going to be a real great blast ….” That alone should tell us the doomfulness inherent in this event. This from the same people who underplayed the cataclysm of Apollo 13 with “Houston, we have a problem”.

For those of you who may survive the event, rest assured that we in the Doombunker will continue to broadcast from the safety of the bunker as the Earth is coated with cyanogen. The horror… Good night and good luck.

War of the Worlds – Redux

2009-02-14T10:48:00.000-08:00

Mars ructat, Terra tremit

Doombrothers has learned from secret NASA files that Mars has had a methane belch!!!! Not only is this unseemly, it is alarming. We at Doombrothers have previously warned of the perils of methane (See Doombrothers post: Nov 22, 2008 “Blame Canada”).

Since it is well known that on earth methane comes from such things as cows and Boy Scout campouts, it is clear to us that this means the methane must be coming from LIFE ON MARS! Now the NASA scientists, retreating from facing the inevitable, are trying to trot out a theory that the gas could have come from molten rock or even from comets or asteroids striking Mars. It seems equally likely to us that the Iranians, having mastered launching satellites in preparation for peace, have been offloading their spare dead bodies into the Martian interior.

But we at Doombrothers are unafraid of facing the truth head on and using Occam’s Razor even though we occasionally get nicked by it. What this intelligence really means is that the methane must be coming from organic materials - things such as pork rinds, tofu and your Aunt Mary. Let’s face it; what happened is enough to show us beyond a shadow of a doubt that there are MARTIANS just under the surface of the planet. And, if there are Martians, then QED, they can only have malign intent. We believe it no coincidence that we have a wealth of literature carefully documenting the machinations of the Martians.

Doombrothers has our crack research team working three shifts to develop a dual purpose aerosol spray (a pump of course, and totally environmentally friendly) with one end containing happy smells (to combat the methane) and on the other containing rhinovirus to deal with the invading Martian swine. You should check back at our Doomstore in the near future to order your supply. Remember our motto: being prepared for anything is everything.

A SIMPLE PLAN

2009-01-25T19:55:00.000-08:00

Consilium simplex

One fine day in 1931, the learned and beloved Herr Doctor David Hilbert was reviewing his notes for the lecture he would give the next day at the assembly of mathematicians who had converged on Konigsberg to assist him in his endeavor to bring logical and axiomatic consistency to the theory of mathematics. He was also to receive a “major prize” from the City of Konigsberg recognizing his contributions to the field of Mathematics (and the tourist dollars being generated by the conference).

Due to expansions in the field of mathematics, such as non-Euclidian geometry and the specter of multiple infinities, Dr. Hilbert had been dissatisfied with the state of mathematics and determine to solve the 23 problems he had posed several years ago that needed to be solved in order to bring mathematics into logical and axiomatic consistency and prove-ability. Dr. Hilbert was doubtless in a good mood on that day and was preparing for a well-deserved triumph.

But, lurking in the wings, the unremitting and unforgiving gnome of chaos lurked in the unprepossessing form of Dr. Kurt Gödel. Even as Dr. Hilbert was reviewing his notes, the fiend Gödel perpetrated his Incompleteness Theorems upon the hapless audience of mathematicians, and other bon vivants, in attendance. What Gödel’s demonstrated showed that mathematical theorems, even those thought very probably true, could not be proven within the axiomatic framework of the theory of mathematics. The old “proof is not truth” dilemma. He converted the following statement into a mathematic framework to convey this:

“This statement is false.”

Logically, if this statement is inaccurate, it is true and thus not false. So it is inconsistent. Also if the statement is accurate, then it then it must be true, thus leading to yet another inconsistency.

Imagine Dr. Hilbert’s surprise the next day when, after his triumphant lecture he was told about Gödel’s theorems that suggested that his entire quest was in folly. It is not recorded whether or not he pulled out his hair, nor how he actually reacted. It is enough to know that he never published another article concerning this issue.

The moral to this story, boys and girls is there is always a Gödel waiting in the wings.

Schroedinger's Cat Bites

2008-12-27T17:20:00.000-08:00

Fele, veni feles

We at Doombrothers have recently been assaulted by Shroedinger’s cat. While motoring from the bunker to get supplies we came across the traffic sign seen above.

As shown, the sign insists that we choose one of only two options. In this instance we had to either choose to go left or to go right. This forced choice is exactly the same type of conundrum that has bedeviled theologians and physicists for many years. Let us elaborate.

In 1843 Soren Kierkegaard, Danish philosopher, theologian and well known depressive, purposed in Either/Or that one could choose between a hedonistic life of sybaritic pleasure, irresponsibility and fun OR a dull, long and plodding life filled with duty, ethics and responsibility. You would not know what the correct choice until is after death. Mr. Kierkegaard, in a typical display of what passes for Scandinavian humor has not yet given up the correct answer.

In 1935 Ervin Schroedinger, the Austrian physicist, torturer of cats and well know bad-boy proposed a thought experiment in which a cat is to be locked into a box with a tiny amount of radioactive material and a small flask of hydrochloric acid. If an atom decayed in the course of an hour a Geiger-counter would be activated which in turn would shatter the container of hydrochloric acid killing the cat, OR, none of the material would decay and the cat would be alive. In keeping with his humor, this twisted-sister also said that we could not know if the cat was dead or alive until we opened the box.

When we at Doombrothers saw the sign, we knew that we were being forced into a realm of doomfulness in which there was a fifty-percent chance of failure, gloom and potential disaster no matter which way we went.

We do not presume to tell you what is correct for you; you have to choose yourself, left or right? We can only tell you what we did to solve the dilemma. We turned the doommobile around and chose another route less fraught with potential failure and which gave us many more choices. Our advice to you is to watch out for true/false questions, moral bipartite dilemmas, forced choices and Schroedinger’s cat - they all bite.

SANTA IS WATCHING!

2008-12-21T21:03:00.001-08:00

Ille venit

DOOMbrothers has recently uncovered documents revealing that we are being surveilled. It is not just the surveillance of the 12,007,083 spy satellites aimed at us by the Rooskies, the Europeans, the Japanese and our own government. It is not just the prying eyes of Google. No, DOOMbrothers has found that we are being spied upon from a reputedly innocuous and benevolent figure. We are being spied upon by Santa!

Yes, recently obtained documents, have been found to include this tell and chilling phrase: “He sees you when you’re sleeping, he knows when you’re awake”. Clearly, we are not simply dealing with your Google taking embarrassing pictures of us sunbathing in our back yard or relieving ourselves in the woods. No, these documents reveal that the dwarves have perfected technology to allow them to view us through the very walls of our homes! Assuredly, even viewing us in the privacy or our bedrooms and bathrooms.

Even more fiendishly, these secret documents reveal that Santa “knows when you’ve been bad or good”. Clearly these fiends have found a way of putting an electronic tag in our ears and are tracking us wherever we go! But even much worse than this is that we at DOOMbrothers have reason to believe that Santa is a white, European male! And, we wonder, how can we allow this being to impose his Euro-centric, outdated and right-wing religious views of morality upon us!

The final and perhaps most doomful detail of this sordid mess is that DOOMbrothers is fairly sure that Santa Claus is in reality, that most chilling of all beings, a CLOWN!

While we are not yet ready open our protective Beta test methodologies to the public, we can give you two words: aluminum foil.

Flux Transfer Events Threaten Life as We Know It

2008-12-14T20:11:00.000-08:00

Scientists have recently revealed that giant rolling pins are moving over the Earth’s magnetosphere. Not only that, but these doomful devices are actually rolling over the NORTH POLE in December and, apparently, every December!

David Sibeck, an apparently sane individual and an astrophysicist at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland reports that the evidence for this is “incontrovertible.” Sibeck and other detached and seemingly unalarmed scientists such as Jimmy Raeder at the University of New Hampshire are happily studying these terrible events. When the magnetosphere (whose very purpose is to protect
us) is pierced by these rolling pins then millions of high-speed particles from the SUN stream down upon the earth. And, these events, called Flux Transfer Events or FTEs, happen approximately every eight minutes.

We at Doombrothers regretfully accept that scientists need to be detached and non-emotional in their approach to things. But the undercurrent of gleefulness detected in this information begs the question: What are they thinking of??

Let us break it down for you. Where are these events occurring? At the North Pole. When are these events occurring? In December, the very coldest time of the year. What is occurring exactly? High-speed particles from the SUN are piercing our defensive shields.

Given this data, is it any wonder that the polar ice cap is melting AND that the polar bears are losing their habitat? We think not. We also wonder if anyone has considered the effects of these killer rays upon Santa and the elves and the reindeer?

We at Doombrothers are committed to stemming the invasion of foreign particles upon our formerly pristine environment. We will soon be offering readers the opportunity to contribute to the SAVE OUR MAGNETOSPHERE FOUNDATION, but more on this later.

THE ANTHROPIC PRINCIPLE - A Call to Action!

2008-12-01T19:23:00.000-08:00

Regnare est bonum

We at DOOMbrothers have been asked if we do not think that we are arrogant in our approach to viewing the entirety of the cosmos in terms of how it might affect us. Like many questions, this rises not from lack of intelligence, but from ignorance of fundamental principles of life.

In a symposium in Krakow in 1973, honoring Copernicus’ 500th birthday, Dr. Brandon Carter coined the term Anthropic Principle. It basically states that in order to understand the origins and makeup of the universe and the laws of physics one must account for man. That is, since we are here, only a universe that has laws of physics that can support us can adequately account for the universe in which we live. For example, a universe made of antimatter would support something, but certainly not human life; and therefore the universe cannot be made of antimatter. Pretty snazzy logic this and we here at DOOMbrothers like it. It places man in the catbird seat, just where he belongs. This is the same soaring logic that compelled Dr. William Cosby in a symposium in Las Vegas honoring sybarites in 1965, to find his innovative answer the puzzle “Why is there air?”

Having now shown that man is actually the why that the universe has come to be, and that the whole show is here for us, it becomes very clear that our duty as leading citizens of this cosmos is to insure that we remain a viable species. For, dear friends, if we vanish, then the very fundamental basis of this universe vanishes. We owe a debt of responsibility to stars, nebulae, expanding gas clouds and little fluffy kitties to be hyper alert; and we at DOOMbrothers will not shirk that duty!

And so, no, we do not think it is arrogant to view the entirety of the cosmos as revolving around DOOMbrothers. After all, as we have so deftly shown above, it really IS all about us. QED

IMPROBABILITIES

2008-11-22T10:19:00.000-08:00

Quis tales sortes expectet?

Probability theory developed relatively late compared to other branches of mathematics. Two fun-loving French guys, Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal are considered the fathers of this terrible branch of mathematics. These boys, basing their theories upon the odds of an event occurring, began a simple quest for how to win at games and score with les femmes. This simple, joyful pursuit has led us to the horror of insurance actuaries who are spending most of their time trying to figure out what doomful things will happen to us and when.

We are all familiar with probability. We are so accustomed to its use that the phrase “what are the odds” is commonplace. What are the odds of getting tails when we toss a coin (1 in 2)? What are the odds of our winning in Power Ball (86,089,128 to 1)? What are the odds that we will be killed by being struck by lightning (300,000 to 1)? It seems so very useful and innocuous doesn’t it? But, as with most seemingly innocuous things, just beneath the surface lie confusion, chaos and danger.

Probability theorists are snobbish elites who delight in their arcane calculations and incantations. They puff up with pride when they describe the “counter-intuitiveness” of their field. What they really mean is by counter-intuitive is that the rules of probability make little common sense. For example, we know that the odds of getting tails when tossing a coin are one in two or 50 percent. So, if we toss the coin three times and it comes up heads each time, we are, due to the increased probability, virtually assured that it will come up tails the next time. WRONG! The smug purveyors of improbability will tell you that the chances of it coming up tails are still only fifty-fifty. What nonsense. You begin to see the treachery of this branch of mathematics.

But, the more you know about probability theory and its evil twin, statistics, the less you will like it. For example, it is the same foolishness that vexed the noble Einstein. Quantum mechanics explores subatomic particles and engages in other questionable activities. These people talk of “probability waves." What they are referring to is an attempt to determine the location of a quantum of energy in a specific area or the exact time when a decaying radioactive particle will throw off an electron. The answer is that you will never know where the quantum is hiding in your area until you observe it. And, you will never know when the radioactive particle will emit its electron until it does and you have measured it. They call this the collapse of the probability wave. What the stalwart and beloved Albert Einstein said was that God does not place dice with the universe. And, if such a figure as Einstein was confounded by this mess, so too should we.

No, probability cannot be used to comfort us and ultimately is a source of great angst to those of us who fully understand its concepts. For example, you are considering going to work today. You wonder what are the odds of being involved in workplace violence. Postal workers overall had an incidence rate of 2.1 per 100,000 in terms of being involved with workplace violence. So, you decide, not bad odds. But, you also realize that you will have to ride an elevator once you get to work and you know that the odds of dying in an elevator accident are 77,000 to one, not bad but not good either. Then, as you are walking to your car you realize that the odds of dying in a fatal car crash are 81 to one! That’s bad. So you return to the relative safety of your home and have a nice warm bath. But, as you bathe you realize that the odds of drowning in a bathtub are 8,000 to one, almost as bad as riding an elevator. And so it goes.

After careful thought you realize that probability theory and statistics are used primarily with large groups and large numbers and speak to “population” trends. But the heart of darkness rests in a probability analysis of individuals. For example, what are the odds that you will age over time? What are the odds that you will have a cavity in one of your teeth? What are the odds that something unpleasant will happen to you in your lifetime? What are the odds that something unpleasant will happen to you today? And, finally, and much worse, what are the odds that you are going to die? As you see, probability, applied at the personal level, can only lead to despair.

And as if this were not enough, things are even worse. Let’s suppose that you actually reach the end of the day without anything untoward occurring. The quantum physics sadists have now concluded that one way of explaining statistical randomness is that there are multiple or parallel universes. So, for every time something does or does not happen in this universe, it doesn’t or does happen in a parallel or multiple universes. So, even if you survived today in this universe without mishap, your probability wave collapsed in another personal universe and something dreadful did happen. Extending this, for every good day you have in this personal universe, you create another personal universe with bad days. So after a run of three good days, you have created three doomful universe days. What are the odds that tomorrow you will have a bad day in this universe? Go figure.

So, when the statisticians call, just remember your John Donne:

“and therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.”

BLAME CANADA

2008-11-22T10:15:00.000-08:00

Merda fit

Wisconsin gave a party about 75,000 years ago and the last major glaciation came. It was a festive affair with the global ice sheets moving down to cover all of Canada, much of Eurasia and the Continental US down to Pennsylvania. A good time was reportedly had by all. About ten thousand years ago the party broke up and the glaciers receded. Their retreat revealed many wonderful things including the Finger Lakes in New York, various deep gloomy lakes in the upper Midwest (such as Lake Woebegon) and the permafrost in the arctic regions of the North American, European and Asian continents.

The glaciers had covered over many slow moving organisms in its rush to get to Wisconsin. Things like trees and lakes and rivers and earthworms and very dimwitted and slow moving animals were trapped beneath the ice. So, many of the things covered over were carbon-based entities, living things. Now carbon is almost as dangerous a chemical as oxygen. It is promiscuous and reckless and will try to combine with almost anything. It is best managed when it is locked up in other things, such as cows and plankton and oak trees and our great aunts. When carbon is released back into the atmosphere doomful things occur. One doomful thing is that there are one-celled Archaea organisms called methanogens whose joy is to combine carbon with hydrogen to form methane. These methanogens are very common in the stomachs of ruminants (your cow) and many primates (your human). They are also very common in wetlands. Methane is, as we all know from bitter experience, an unpleasant gas given to causing bad smells and global warming and embarrassing moments on dates.

And now with global warming, the world’s temperature is rising and the permafrost is melting. And with the melting we get? You guessed it, wetlands. And with the increase in wetlands we get those methanogen guys sucking up all the carbon material that was being held within the permafrost and releasing tons of methane into our atmosphere creating yes, global warming, but even worse a dreadful stench that may be even more deadly to us as a species. It will be like the equivalent of 7,000,000 boy scouts sequestered in an enormous tent and being feed beanie-weenies four times a day. Imagine if you dare.

As always, no need to thank DOOMbrothers for providing this insight. That’s what we’re here for.

2008-11-22T09:35:00.000-08:00

FREE BUMPER STICKERS!!! SAVE HUMANITY FROM CERTAIN DOOM!!!

Help DOOMbrothers take over the world and get a FREE bumper sticker! Yes, kids, be the first in your neighborhood to get the very cool, life changing DOOMbrothers bumper sticker shown below!!

All you have to do is send the URL for the DOOMbrothers blog www.doombrothers.blogspot.com on to ten of your friends who have equally warped senses of humor and we’ll send you ABSOLUTELY FREE a zirconium encrusted DOOMbrothers bumper sticker which shows an ACTUAL PHOTOGRAPH of the DOOMbrothers in action saving humanity from the perils of the Universe.

How do you get your free bumper sticker? Easy. Just send your snail mail address to our email address and your bumper sticker will arrive by the magic of US mail a few days later!

Q? How will you know if I actually sent your URL on to ten of my friends?

A. DOOMbrothers has connections. His name is Vinnie and he knows where you live. You sent us your address remember?? Actually we don’t have a friend named Vinnie. Hell, we’re not even that well connected. But we do believe in guilt. And the synchronistic attraction of bad karma. So if you don’t send our URL on to ten of your friends really bad things will happen to you. Like maybe an asteroid will hit the earth and it would be all your fault. You wouldn’t want to be responsible for the end of civilization as we know it would you?? So do the right thing, save humanity and pass on the word of DOOMbrothers and our attempts to educate the world of the hazards of living.

Q? What if I don’t have ten friends?

A. Actually DOOMbrothers don’t have ten friends either. We live in a radiation proof bunker at an undisclosed location somewhere in the minor outlying territories. So what the hell, we’ll send you a bumper sticker even if you send this on to five friends. Or we’ll send you a bunch if you promise to paste them on the windows at Wahoo’s Fish Taco and your company bulletin board. Or here’s an idea: paste it on your kid’s forehead for “show and tell” at school. Wait, no that’s probably a bad idea. Imagine if children knew how terrifying the world really is. Best to let them have their merry childhoods and let the professionals at DOOMbrothers do the worrying for them

In any case click here to send us that e-mail saying you have passed the word of DOOMbrothers on to your friends and Homeland Security.