IMPROBABILITIES

Quis tales sortes expectet?

Probability theory developed relatively late compared to other branches of mathematics. Two fun-loving French guys, Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal are considered the fathers of this terrible branch of mathematics. These boys, basing their theories upon the odds of an event occurring, began a simple quest for how to win at games and score with les femmes. This simple, joyful pursuit has led us to the horror of insurance actuaries who are spending most of their time trying to figure out what doomful things will happen to us and when.

We are all familiar with probability. We are so accustomed to its use that the phrase “what are the odds” is commonplace. What are the odds of getting tails when we toss a coin (1 in 2)? What are the odds of our winning in Power Ball (86,089,128 to 1)? What are the odds that we will be killed by being struck by lightning (300,000 to 1)? It seems so very useful and innocuous doesn’t it? But, as with most seemingly innocuous things, just beneath the surface lie confusion, chaos and danger.

Probability theorists are snobbish elites who delight in their arcane calculations and incantations. They puff up with pride when they describe the “counter-intuitiveness” of their field. What they really mean is by counter-intuitive is that the rules of probability make little common sense. For example, we know that the odds of getting tails when tossing a coin are one in two or 50 percent. So, if we toss the coin three times and it comes up heads each time, we are, due to the increased probability, virtually assured that it will come up tails the next time. WRONG! The smug purveyors of improbability will tell you that the chances of it coming up tails are still only fifty-fifty. What nonsense. You begin to see the treachery of this branch of mathematics.

But, the more you know about probability theory and its evil twin, statistics, the less you will like it. For example, it is the same foolishness that vexed the noble Einstein. Quantum mechanics explores subatomic particles and engages in other questionable activities. These people talk of “probability waves." What they are referring to is an attempt to determine the location of a quantum of energy in a specific area or the exact time when a decaying radioactive particle will throw off an electron. The answer is that you will never know where the quantum is hiding in your area until you observe it. And, you will never know when the radioactive particle will emit its electron until it does and you have measured it. They call this the collapse of the probability wave. What the stalwart and beloved Albert Einstein said was that God does not place dice with the universe. And, if such a figure as Einstein was confounded by this mess, so too should we.

No, probability cannot be used to comfort us and ultimately is a source of great angst to those of us who fully understand its concepts. For example, you are considering going to work today. You wonder what are the odds of being involved in workplace violence. Postal workers overall had an incidence rate of 2.1 per 100,000 in terms of being involved with workplace violence. So, you decide, not bad odds. But, you also realize that you will have to ride an elevator once you get to work and you know that the odds of dying in an elevator accident are 77,000 to one, not bad but not good either. Then, as you are walking to your car you realize that the odds of dying in a fatal car crash are 81 to one! That’s bad. So you return to the relative safety of your home and have a nice warm bath. But, as you bathe you realize that the odds of drowning in a bathtub are 8,000 to one, almost as bad as riding an elevator. And so it goes.

After careful thought you realize that probability theory and statistics are used primarily with large groups and large numbers and speak to “population” trends. But the heart of darkness rests in a probability analysis of individuals. For example, what are the odds that you will age over time? What are the odds that you will have a cavity in one of your teeth? What are the odds that something unpleasant will happen to you in your lifetime? What are the odds that something unpleasant will happen to you today? And, finally, and much worse, what are the odds that you are going to die? As you see, probability, applied at the personal level, can only lead to despair.

And as if this were not enough, things are even worse. Let’s suppose that you actually reach the end of the day without anything untoward occurring. The quantum physics sadists have now concluded that one way of explaining statistical randomness is that there are multiple or parallel universes. So, for every time something does or does not happen in this universe, it doesn’t or does happen in a parallel or multiple universes. So, even if you survived today in this universe without mishap, your probability wave collapsed in another personal universe and something dreadful did happen. Extending this, for every good day you have in this personal universe, you create another personal universe with bad days. So after a run of three good days, you have created three doomful universe days. What are the odds that tomorrow you will have a bad day in this universe? Go figure.

So, when the statisticians call, just remember your John Donne:

“and therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.”

BLAME CANADA

Merda fit

Wisconsin gave a party about 75,000 years ago and the last major glaciation came. It was a festive affair with the global ice sheets moving down to cover all of Canada, much of Eurasia and the Continental US down to Pennsylvania. A good time was reportedly had by all. About ten thousand years ago the party broke up and the glaciers receded. Their retreat revealed many wonderful things including the Finger Lakes in New York, various deep gloomy lakes in the upper Midwest (such as Lake Woebegon) and the permafrost in the arctic regions of the North American, European and Asian continents.

The glaciers had covered over many slow moving organisms in its rush to get to Wisconsin. Things like trees and lakes and rivers and earthworms and very dimwitted and slow moving animals were trapped beneath the ice. So, many of the things covered over were carbon-based entities, living things. Now carbon is almost as dangerous a chemical as oxygen. It is promiscuous and reckless and will try to combine with almost anything. It is best managed when it is locked up in other things, such as cows and plankton and oak trees and our great aunts. When carbon is released back into the atmosphere doomful things occur. One doomful thing is that there are one-celled Archaea organisms called methanogens whose joy is to combine carbon with hydrogen to form methane. These methanogens are very common in the stomachs of ruminants (your cow) and many primates (your human). They are also very common in wetlands. Methane is, as we all know from bitter experience, an unpleasant gas given to causing bad smells and global warming and embarrassing moments on dates.

And now with global warming, the world’s temperature is rising and the permafrost is melting. And with the melting we get? You guessed it, wetlands. And with the increase in wetlands we get those methanogen guys sucking up all the carbon material that was being held within the permafrost and releasing tons of methane into our atmosphere creating yes, global warming, but even worse a dreadful stench that may be even more deadly to us as a species. It will be like the equivalent of 7,000,000 boy scouts sequestered in an enormous tent and being feed beanie-weenies four times a day. Imagine if you dare.

As always, no need to thank DOOMbrothers for providing this insight. That’s what we’re here for.

FREE BUMPER STICKERS!!! SAVE HUMANITY FROM CERTAIN DOOM!!!

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How do you get your free bumper sticker? Easy. Just send your snail mail address to our email address and your bumper sticker will arrive by the magic of US mail a few days later!

Q? How will you know if I actually sent your URL on to ten of my friends?

A. DOOMbrothers has connections. His name is Vinnie and he knows where you live. You sent us your address remember?? Actually we don’t have a friend named Vinnie. Hell, we’re not even that well connected. But we do believe in guilt. And the synchronistic attraction of bad karma. So if you don’t send our URL on to ten of your friends really bad things will happen to you. Like maybe an asteroid will hit the earth and it would be all your fault. You wouldn’t want to be responsible for the end of civilization as we know it would you?? So do the right thing, save humanity and pass on the word of DOOMbrothers and our attempts to educate the world of the hazards of living.

Q? What if I don’t have ten friends?

A. Actually DOOMbrothers don’t have ten friends either. We live in a radiation proof bunker at an undisclosed location somewhere in the minor outlying territories. So what the hell, we’ll send you a bumper sticker even if you send this on to five friends. Or we’ll send you a bunch if you promise to paste them on the windows at Wahoo’s Fish Taco and your company bulletin board. Or here’s an idea: paste it on your kid’s forehead for “show and tell” at school. Wait, no that’s probably a bad idea. Imagine if children knew how terrifying the world really is. Best to let them have their merry childhoods and let the professionals at DOOMbrothers do the worrying for them

In any case click here to send us that e-mail saying you have passed the word of DOOMbrothers on to your friends and Homeland Security.